DOHA, Qatar / AfricaWire.IO / – Rising fertiliser and fuel prices linked to the US-Israel war on Iran could cut harvests across Africa next year, a senior UN trade official has warned. Luz Maria de la Mora of UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) told Al Jazeera that many countries have reduced fertiliser use as prices climbed dramatically. She called for the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz to be resolved “sooner rather than later.” African trade ministers attending the World Investment Forum in Doha echoed the concerns.
De la Mora, who directs UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities, said lower fertiliser use would affect crops. She warned the shift could reduce food availability and push up food prices. Higher oil prices have also disrupted supply chains, she said. “The effects are lasting longer than we would have expected or would have wanted,” she added.
Before the war, one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices hit $110 a barrel in mid-October as supply fears grew. UNCTAD and Qatar are co-hosting the 9th World Investment Forum in Doha from October 25 to 27. Heads of state, policymakers, chief executives and investors are discussing global investment and sustainable development.
Fuel prices double in Uganda
Uganda’s minister of trade, industry and cooperatives, Sanjay Tanna, said fuel prices in the country have more than doubled. The Ugandan shilling has lost 10% of its value against the US dollar and has declined steadily since mid-2026. However, Tanna said subsistence farming has helped shield Uganda from global market volatility. Domestic food production gives the country an advantage while international supply chains are under strain, he said.
In Zimbabwe, where more than 70% of people depend on agriculture, higher fuel and fertiliser costs are a critical concern, minister Monica Mutsvangwa said. She said Harare is open to investors from both the US and China despite trade tensions between the two powers. “Money has no color,” Mutsvangwa said, adding that the country welcomes investors who follow its rules. She highlighted Zimbabwe’s deposits of more than 60 critical minerals, including lithium and graphite.
Africa seeks more value from resources
Attracting foreign capital remains difficult for developing economies, as investment tends to concentrate in a few countries. De la Mora said capital is risk averse and needs certainty of returns. Governments can build confidence through transparent institutions, the rule of law and reliable energy and digital infrastructure, she said. UNCTAD data show Africa drew $70 billion in foreign direct investment in 2025.
Tanna said the international trading system was not equal, calling it unfair, but said Uganda was in a good position. Republic of Congo Deputy Prime Minister Jean-Jacques Bouya said his country has aligned its Vision 2063 plan with African Union goals, focusing on connectivity and local processing. He said Africa can no longer be a place where raw materials are extracted, processed elsewhere and sold back at higher prices. Both countries see investment in younger generations as key to resilience.
