The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released its latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief on Friday, forecasting a record global rice output for the 2024/25 season. According to the FAO, rice production is expected to grow by 1.5 percent year-on-year, reaching an unprecedented 543.6 million tonnes. Despite the strong outlook for rice, the FAO has slightly lowered its overall estimate for global cereal production in 2024, revising it to 4.848 billion tonnes. This adjustment reflects varied conditions across regions and crop types.
However, global cereal utilization in 2024/25 is forecast to increase by 1.0 percent from the previous year, reaching 2.870 billion tonnes. The rise is mainly driven by increased maize use for animal feed in China and the Russian Federation, as well as growing rice consumption in several African countries. The global wheat production forecast for 2025 remains stable at 795 million tonnes, consistent with 2024 levels. Strong yields are expected in Asia, supported by favorable conditions in India. Southern Europe and North Africa are also likely to post gains, while production in Canada and the Russian Federation is anticipated to remain steady.
However, challenges persist in northern Europe and the Near East, where rainfall deficits may affect yields. In the United States, drought conditions continue to weigh on the outlook. Harvesting of 2025 coarse grain crops has begun in the southern hemisphere. Output is expected to rise in Brazil and South Africa, contributing to a stronger season overall. In the northern hemisphere, the United States is projected to expand coarse grain plantings by five percent, signaling positive early expectations for the upcoming harvest.
World cereal stocks are now forecast to decline by 1.9 percent to 868.2 million tonnes by the end of the 2025 seasons. While this represents a modest reduction, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 29.9 percent, which the FAO considers a comfortable buffer against market volatility. In terms of trade, the FAO has lowered its forecast for global cereal trade in 2024/25 to 478.6 million tonnes, marking a 6.8 percent drop compared to 2023/24.
This would be the lowest level recorded since the 2019/20 season. The contraction is mainly due to decreased demand for coarse grains from China and a reduction in maize export availability from Brazil. Conversely, global rice trade is expected to increase by 1.2 percent, reaching a record 60.4 million tonnes. This uptick reflects strong demand from importing countries and aligns with the projected rise in global rice production. – By MENA Newswire News Desk.
